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November 09, 2016


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Benjamin F

I tend to agree with you. On foreign policy Trump, initially looked the safer pair of hands, more traditionally conservative than his liberal-expansionist opponent. But we've seen before petty-nationalists who claim that they are primarily interested in their own countries interests and borders, engaging in external military adventure when they see their 'domestic' economic interests threatened by foreign regimes. Possible too that geopolitical players from Putin to Jihadists will be looking to test Trump early into his Presidency. Whilst being 'unpredictable' can be a foreign policy strength - it supposedly helped LBJ against the Soviets - against religious fundamentalists who care little for consequences, it is less of an advantage.

Domestically, however, it is where Trump will be tested. Will he lock Hilary Clinton up as he promised his supporters? Will the wall be built - and paid for by the Mexicans? As an instrument for blocking immigration it will fail, but symbolically its important (and expensive). Walls are made to be broken. Walls can be dug under and climbed over (ask the Israelis). There are also coastal routes between Mexico and America. It's a hugely expensive folly, but if it is built it will be a significant architecture monument to his Presidency, and its non-appearance would also be hugely significant, that he is just another compromiser and liar.

Can Trump successfully renegotiate trade deals. He is in a stronger position than the post-Brexit trade negotiaters, simply because of the size of the US economy. But it seems unlikely he'll gain sufficient concessions to significantly assist US heavy industry, without significant US subsidy.

He has borrowed some of the economic policy positions of Sanders, which appealed to the rust belt working class, and can be sold to the capitalist class. Massive social works investments in internal infrastructure. America's has been economically damaged by its Propertarian reluctance to invest in its infrastructure. Will these infrastructure jobs be unionised and high-paying or part of the prison-work program?.

What will happen if 12 million people without adequate papers are started to be deported. Will this be the basis of the first major popular counter-movement to Trump?

Trump has Congress and Senate nominally on his side. in principle there is little to stop him... except for an engaged citizenry....

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