I Intend To Escape ......................And Come Back

Workforce Fails To Deliver

Proletarian fans of horse racing were left disappointed yesterday at the performance of Workforce in the King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. 

The derby winner, heavily backed and tipped by Freedom Press in the current Anarchist fortnightly, finished a woeful sixth from seven runners. I am reliably informed that a somewhat sheepish editor of Freedom was spotted on the eastbound platform at Ascot station yesterday evening. Hopefully the book shop profits were still in his possession.........

World Cup Betting

Seeing as I'm missing the Derby today, I have taken solace in some World Cup betting.

I have gone for old foes Argentina to win the tournament at 7-1. Certainly better prices were available on Maradona's men several months ago, but they are still good odds, and wiser than a bet on England. My other punt was going to be on Ivory Coast to beat Portugal in the group match on 15 June. Sven Goran Erikson is a master of preparation, whose teams usually start well (as we saw so often with England it was only when games wore on and events intervened that he struggled tactically) whilst Portugal have been in mixed form for some time.

The difficulty is with the adult baby Didier Drogba now injured, the Ivorians have lost their best player. I'll see how the betting takes shape nearer the match, but an Ivory Coast win now looks a lot this likely.

Political Betting

The somewhat hysterical reaction to Nick Clegg's performance in Thursdays electoral debate has thrown general election betting into rather a tizzy. 

I am pleased to say I placed four bets, perhaps on rather fringe characters, well before all this excitement began. My bets (which do not demonstrate endorsement) were:

UKIP's Nigel Farage to beat the speaker John Bercow in Buckingham: £10 at 11/4
Respect's Abjol Miah to win Bethnal Green: £5 at 11/4
Respect's George Galloway to win the three way fight in Poplar and Limehouse: £5 at 13/2 
Respect's Salma Yaqoob to take Birmingham Hall Green from Labour: £10 at 6/1

Of these I made a major mistake with Yaqoob, who was 14/1 on most websites shortly before I placed my bet. My dithering may have been a significant mistake. Of the others the odds on the rather unpleasant Abjol Miah are I think particularly generous, given Respect hold the seat, and he has long been Galloway's designated successor.
Elsewhere I suspect the Tories chances in Poplar & Limehouse may be slightly overstated. Yes parts of the area have been gentrified but the Tories are starting from such a weak base. However the potential for white working class voters to turn to the Conservatives, and thus say a plague on both your houses following the exposure of Islamic Forum of Europe influence over Respect and (especially) Labour in the East End clearly exists. Galloway however, with his mastery of old style canvassing, and the likely block vote from local mosques, is a great bet at the price. 

In Birmingham Salma Yaqoob has been boosted by a lacklustre local Labour campaign, and claims of the endorsement of an outgoing Labour MP from elsewhere in the City, Lynne Jones. That explains the sudden fall in her price, although it obviously remains to be seen whether that is merely the bookies being cautious. The bet I am most confident of is UKIP's Nigel Farrage against the oily John Bercow in Buckingham. The type of people Farrage appeals to always vote, and to me for Bercow to win he needs to hold a good section of the Tory vote, and to get Lib Dem and Labour voters out (neither party stands against the speaker). I am not sure they will, and UKIP's populist rhetoric will not do them any harm. 

I shall report back on the progress of these bets on May 7th. Given the nature of the candidates it may be an overstatement to say I have my fingers crossed, but it will at least be interesting......

A Saturday Accumulator

Ok - so you've lost all you money at Cheltenham this week.

What better response than to find a good six team accumulator for todays football? I have £2 on the following:

Everton to beat Bolton
Notts Forest to beat Peterborough
QPR to beat Swansea
West Brom to beat Preston
Charlton to beat Gillingham
Celtic to beat St Johnstone

On The Perils of Predicting

Hello to paranormal parents Jane and Craig Hamilton!

Back in December 2008 SkyMag, the free magazine sent to all Sky subscribers, invited the psychic pair to make their predictions for 2009, as they starred in the Biography Channel's Our Psychic Family. The Hamilton's, who now style themselves as Craig and Jane Hamilton-Parker on the Psychic & Mediums Network, looked into their crystal ball, and came up with the following:

1. Barak Obama will survive an assassination attempt - it will be a John F Kennedy-style shooting.
0-1.
2. A celeb will be involved in a knife attack.
This is so vague as to be virtually worthless, but it is hard to name any prominent celebrity thus injured.
0-2.
3. Victoria Beckham will become pregnant with a longed for baby girl.
She remains as skinny as ever. Another miss. 0-3.
4. A major eco-catastrophe in Paris will impact on the global community.
Paris still looks fine from where I am standing. 0-4.
5.Katie Price - aka Jordan - will announce a surprise pregnancy.
She has rarely been out of the news, but not for these reasons. 0-5.
6. The world will go even deeper into recession - far worse than currently predicted. This will have disastrous repurcussions in Africa.
This is a harder one to score. Yes the recession continued, but it was the UK that lagged behind others. As for Africa, it does not appear to have suffered more, comparatively, than anywhere else. 0-6.
7.Gordon Brown will be ousted from power.
Completely wide of the mark, Brown not only remains in harness but the Tories have failed to pull away in the polls. 0-7.

SkyMag ended its article with the words "We'll have to check back this time next year and see if the Hamilton's are right". Sadly Sky did not, but I have - and they were not! I do hope Sky were not paying them for such rubbish?

 

 

The World Cup Starts Now.......

It is time to get excited. 

The draw for the group stages of World Cup is today, in Cape Town. Its televised - 5.15pm on BBC2. As I am known for my bad tips, I shall play safe and go for Brazil. I fancy England to reach the semi-finals (dependent on us avoiding Brazil, Italy or Spain)  I think we can beat everyone else, but we lack the all round class to defeat that big three. 

My outside tip to do well is Serbia - winger Milos Krasic is the best player I have seen this season. Add him to some of their players in the Premier League, and you have a truly golden generation. With the possible exception of Ivory Coast, I am afraid Africa's first World Cup will also be characterised by some very ordinary African performances......

Big Fight Prediction

This evening sees David Haye take on Nikolay Valuev for the WBA Heavyweight title. 

It is a few years since I saw Haye fighting as a Crusierweight, when he beat Giacobbe Fragomeni at York Hall, to retail his European title. On that occasion Haye struggled against a smaller man, with Fragomeni taking several rounds in the middle of the fight, before the champion suddenly woke up and sprung into action. 

How Haye copes against a much bigger man is the key question tonight. For many years Valuev's fights were a staple on Eurosport, and they were rarely inspiring - usually dull points wins - although he has improved as a boxer in recent times. As with many fighters based in Germany, he has also benefitted from some home town decisions (e.g. against Evander Holyfield) but his size and durability - he's never been knocked down - suggest our man will struggle. 

Last night I looked on-line for odds on Valuev to win on points. Ladbrokes were only offering a very staid 7-2. Whether I put anything on it or not, that's my prediction - the Russian to win on points, possibly with Haye left bemoaning the judges. 

A Further Accumulator

By the law of averages more than any great skill or knowldge, one of these accumulators is certainly due to come in! Here is my bet for this weekend's football.

Aston Villa to beat Portsmouth
Bolton to beat Stoke
Notts Forest to beat Blackpool
Leeds to beat Gillingham
Hereford to beat Accrington Stanley

Then finally on Sunday for Manchester United to beat Manchester City. There are two things in life you can never buy - history and class. Over a full season, United will certainly put City in their place - lets hope that process begins on Sunday.

Today's Accumulator

Here's six of the best!

Blackburn to beat Wolves
Sunderland to beat Hull
QPR to beat Peterborough
Sheff Wednesday to beat Notts Forest
Bournemouth to beat Lincoln
Bradford to beat Burton Albion

Given my recent tips, I suspect few will go with this, but £2 on at 39-1, won't hurt. 

A Football Accumulator

Along with my Kent comrade, I have this little bet going on todays Internationals:

Cyprus to beat Ireland
Israel to beat Latvia
Norway to win in Iceland
Portugal to win in Denmark
Slovakia to beat the Czech Republic
Turkey to beat Estonia

Of these I had to be persuaded that Slovakia would beat the Czech Republic, and I was tempted to go for Macedonia over Scotland (for whom George Burley is fast destroying his reputation) but I really see that game being a draw.

If there are no posts over the next few days - you'll know by bet came in!